bellwether counties epoch times

By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. John Hawker, a 74-year-old Port Clinton resident who grew up in Toledo, was sitting at the end of the bar and also weighed in on the state of affairs. They run the gamut from. Median household incomes range from $65,000 in Bremer County, Iowa, to $32,000 in Hidalgo County, New Mexico. Miller doesnt hesitate to say that he isnt happy with the current state of affairs and he doesnt know who hell vote for in the next presidential election. Here's why. Hamilton had already cast his vote for Biden on the first day of early voting. No evidence for systematic voter fraud: A guide to statistical claims County Legislature Approves Revised $75 Million ARPA Spending Plan Medicare is becoming a joke. Theres too much corruption. Delaware's Kent County last missed in 1992. Understanding the I-4 corridor's bellwether mojo requires defining the area. The City Center festival continued with Kyiv City Ballet, a Christopher Wheeldon duet and a daring work for Dayton Contemporary Dance Company. I vote for whoever I think is going to do the best job, Sam added. There Are No Bellwether Counties | HuffPost Latest News Now, just because my president is Republican, I expected a swing to the right, but what we have nowthey broke the whole pendulum. Westmoreland is the only one of the counties in the South, Clallam is the only one on the West Coast, and Hidalgo and Valencia are the only counties in the Mountain West. He doesnt seem like a really bad guy. Carol Jacobs in Ridgway, Elk County, Penn., on Sept. 17, 2020. Once the two 2016 presidential candidates were locked in, she knew she couldnt vote for Clinton, while Trumps promise to drain the swamp piqued her interest. Review: At Fall for Dance, Resilience Takes Center Stage We have to stand and fight for the constitution our forefathers created. He didnt vote in 2016 either. It also has a failing manufacturing sector with once Democratic-leaning union workers who may have found Trumps America First message appealing in recent years. Jacobs said she absolutely intends to vote in person on Nov. 3. In a 2020 article, Daniel Zimny-Schmitt and Michael Harris look for bellwether counties in the period 1980-2016 and identify nineteen such. This is a high farming community.. Missouri fits this definition, as do six counties that have matched the national vote. In the northwest corner of Ohio sits a county with an enviable bellwether reputationonly twice over the past 60 years voting against the presidential winner. He said Vigo County is fairly evenly divided between those who identify as Republicans and those who identify as Democrats. Both Jacobs and her husband switched to Republican and Ive never looked back, she said. He isnt so sure about Biden. No one who spoke to The Epoch Times had anything positive to say about Wolfs continued shutdowns in the state. Natural gas is a key ingredient in the process used to make the nitrogen-based fertilizer used on crops such as corn and wheat. A state is considered a "bellwether state" if it usually . Its a county where the residents are proud of its powdered metal factories and where the Ford F-Series is as ubiquitous as the American flag. It also has a failing manufacturing sector with once Democratic-leaning union workers who may have found Trumps America First message appealing in recent years. We find that bellwether success is almost entirely a matter of random coin tosses in multiple counties over time to create an appearance of predictive power that is a matter of chance. Washington state's Clallam County was the outlier, backing Joe Biden in a state he won by more than 19 points. There are 22 counties in the US that managed to vote for the winning party in every single election from 1988 to 2016. I think thats what the world needed. He says hes going to vote for the lesser of two evils.. Ottawa County in Ohio has been on target every four years since 1964, and Bexar County in Texas (San Antonio) has had only one miss since 1928 (preferring the Democrat Hubert Humphrey in 1968). Its kind of like used-car salesmen: if their lips are moving, theyre probably lying.. Bellwether County Portends a Red Pennsylvania in 2020 Election That was a blow to the area, Miller said about Peloton ending its plans for a $400 million project. The median household annual income is approximately, In 2016, nearly 100 million eligible Americans didnt vote. In particular, recent research which identified nineteen bellwether counties found that they "tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole." Just off Interstate 75 at the Pemberville/Bowling Green exit, is Frickers, a popular eatery and gathering place for people of all ages, whereChris Chamberlin ofBowling Green works as the restaurants manager. This includes personalizing content and advertising. Hes concerned about big government, burdensome regulations, and encroachments on the Constitution. The majority of rural America are our hard-working, blue-collar workers. The 19 bellwether counties are highlighted in red. Peloton plans to complete construction on the building on its 200-acre property and sell it, but will downsize its workforce. He also believes many local Biden voters made the decision to vote for the Democratic candidate years ago, but theyre not going to be vocal about it.. He likes how the Democratic Party helps lower-income people. If he does not answer that issue clearly, I will not vote for him.. We have become so divided. Theyve been dubbed bellwether counties and until this year, no president since at least Ronald Reagan has missed even one. State residents are awaiting a ruling from the Ohio Supreme Court about whether it will approve the newly proposed congressional map that the Ohio Redistricting Commission submitted to the high court earlier this month. Will Ohio's Wood County Continue to Be a Reliable - The Epoch Times Haotian Chen University of California, Irvine Wolf has allowed for the counting of ballots to continue for three days after Nov. 3, meaning its unlikely that a winner will be called in Pennsylvania for at least a week after the election. Its going to cause stealing, probably more riots, and all that., Weve had flu around forever, different strains of it. Armagost was lucky during the shutdowns, as bike shop repairs and maintenance were considered essential and he remained in business. Residents who were asked about any candidate choices tended to be true to their reputation as a bellwether county, with more of a wait-and-see type of attitude of seeing whos going to step up as a presidential candidate in 2024. Not as large or as well-known as its more eastern cousin, Luzerne County, where much of the election attention has been focused, Elk County is just as accurate in predicting who will be the next commander in chief. Michael Sakal is a former reporter for The Epoch Times. Many counties in states that have reliably voted for one party for many cycles are home to counties which have almost always voted for the winner of the election; for example, South Carolina has two strong bellwether counties despite being a reliably Republican state, and California has a number of strong bellwethers in its central valley despite being a reliably Democratic state.. Theres too much mishandling, she said. I think all politicians are crooks. Farming also is huge here. Another Ridgway resident said hes more enthusiastic to vote for Trump this year. Biden Extends National Emergency Due to Extraordinary Threat of Russian Actions in Ukraine, Tulsi Gabbard Says Election Fraud a 'Serious Threat,' Announces Bill Targeting Ballot Harvesting. Its home to four universities, filled with many Democratic-leaning students. To find out more about cookies and change your preferences, visit our, looked to ten allegedly bellwether counties, The Russia-Ukraine War: a challenge to international order, Global Energy Politics and Cost of Living Crisis, The New Normal: a dual track approach to health strategy and policy, Inside the Deal: how the EU got Brexit done. Greg Abbott of Texas as a possible presidential candidate. 2020: Trump - 54.12%, Biden - 45.20%. In the May 3 primary, theres also a mix of familiar names with new candidates on the ballot. Youre not getting anybody perfect. The price of gas at the Marathon gas station in Port Clinton was $3.39 a gallon on Feb. 22 whenDave Beggs, anarmy veteran and retired City of Port Clinton heavy equipment operator, pulled in. Theyve been dubbed bellwether counties and until this year, no president since at least Ronald Reagan has missed even one. Ever since COVID started, it hasnt gotten any better.. Well just have to wait and see who will go into the building. She can be reached at cara.ding@epochtimes.com, Biden Extends National Emergency Due to Extraordinary Threat of Russian Actions in Ukraine, Suburban Wisconsin Voters Divided on Presidential Race. I vote for whomever I think is going to do the better job, whether they are a Democrat or a Republican. (Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times). But what would be striking is for it to end so radically. Bellwether counties are mostly a matter of chance and are now - USAPP The indirect evidence for election fraud rests on various statistical claims about the high level of improbability of certain features of the 2020 election. HOW THE SPECTER OF COMMUNISM IS RULING OUR WORLD. We shouldnt be fighting among each other here. But, just within the last year, the price of everything has gone up. The bellwether scores map highlights the fact that many states have a good bellwether county or two, even if they did not make the list of the 19 counties which have always voted for the winning candidate, they said. RIDGWAY, Pa.Tucked into a wooded valley in north-central Pennsylvania is the bellwether borough of Ridgway, the county seat of Elk County. I dont feel good about the leadership in our country right now.. I think everyone has the same opinion that things arent good.. The counties are also mostly small and rural. When you were in the union, they always wanted you to vote for Democrats, Paul said. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Shepherd said being able to bear arms is of particular importance now and she fears Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden would restrict that right. And we just want that to continue. The counties are also mostly small and rural. I got a life. The last time Ottawa County deviated from its winning choice for president was in 1960 when the county supported Republican Richard Nixon, but Democrat John F. Kennedy won. Sam said he has noticed that the farmers arent happy, and their kids have to take a side job in the factory because of the economic situation. Republican registrations have increased from 8,467 on Nov. 9, 2016, to 9,960 as of Sept. 17 this year. Only one, Clallam County in Washington, went for former Vice President Joe Biden and only by about a three-point margin. Supreme Court nominees also matter a lot to Myers in this election. We use cookies on this site to understand how you use our content, and to give you the best browsing experience. Longtime Rep. Marcy Kaptur, a Democrat who has been in Congress since 1983, is running for reelection; Teresa Gavarone and J.R. Majewski are competing in the GOP primary. For decades, the bellwethers were a host of fairly conservative but traditionally Democratic rural counties. Vance. Half the people are just wearing rags on top of their face. Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020. Of the 19 bellwether counties that have consistently voted for the presidential winner since 1980, all but one chose Trump, the Journal found, PJ Media reported. Seasonal businesses such as ferries, dairy docks, ice cream stands, Cheesehaven, and fudge factories, are closed. bellwether counties epoch times High scoring bellwether counties in these regions tend to border other high-scoring counties, unlike their counterparts in the South and West, which tend to see high scoring bellwethers somewhat isolated from each other. Teresa Shepherd, a middle-aged woman living in Riley, just southeast of Terre Haute, has never cared much about voting. The shift is evident when comparing current registrations with the 2016 numbers. Biden has talked both ways, so its hard for me to really grasp where he is on the issue. Getting fertilizer can be a challenge.. Its crazy. We need to finish putting up the wall that Trump started. Will Ohios Wood County Continue to Be a Reliable Bellwether Indicator? I just got on Social Security disability, because I cant work anymore. These 10 bellwether counties five in Sun Belt battlegrounds, five in the Frost Belt (loosely defined to include Iowa) could point us toward each state's winner. The roads are bad, the price of gas is high, its one thing after another. Enforce the ones that you do have, he said. Jim Hoft is the founder and editor of The Gateway Pundit, one of the top conservative news outlets in America. We just couldnt believe that Trump had lost.. Even if the mean likelihood of a match between county and presidential outcome is exactly 50 percent, in the classic argument offered by Deutsch and Madow in 1961, on the appearance of wisdom in large organizations, some counties will, by chance alone, have high records of predictive success and some may even have perfect records, especially if there are many counties and if we limit the number of elections over which we are requiring successful predictions. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. Port Clinton, Ohio. Eleven of the 19 were located in just six Midwestern states, and Wisconsin alone is home to four, they said. The Upper Mississippi River Valley and it [sic] surrounding area in particular appears to be an epicenter of these high-scoring bellwethers., Teresa Shepherd stands in front of her daughters house in Seelyvilee, Ind., on Oct. 20, 2020. And the thing is, when they have these laws now that they arent enforcing, what good is another law going to be? I think he is more for giving to the people.. The expansion for First Solar was made possible by changes in the U.S. Corporate Tax Policy during the Trump administration. Logistics are a nightmare, Miller said. Paul, a 51-year-old resident in Seelyvillejust east of Terre Hautewho also didnt disclose his last name, wont vote either. Thats probably the biggest fear right now when I talk to people. And then theres Vigo Countyin Indianathe quintessential bellwether that has correctly picked the winner in all but two elections since 1888. Bellwether County Portends a Red Pennsylvania in 2020 Election However, in the 2020 primary election, more Democrats had turned out to vote3,413 to 2,598 Republicans, usually an indicator of how the presidential election is going to go, party officials believe. I quit voting once out of the union.. In new research, Bernard Grofman and Haotian Chen argue that the evidence shows that this claim is laughable. Haotian Chen is a Ph.D. student in political science at the University of California, Irvine. The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about 4 points on average. High scoring bellwether counties in these regions tend to border other high scoring counties, unlike their counterparts in the South and West, which tend to see high scoring bellwethers somewhat isolated from each other. Just two have populations in excess of 100,000, the authors said. He pissed off a lot of people. I think they [the current administration] are trying to push us into buying electric cars. Donald Trump 16 out of 39 counties which are considered significant bellwethers. By registering for the newsletter, you agree to the, New Crew From US, Russia, and UAE Arrives at Space Station, LIVE NOW: Biden Awards Medal of Honor to Retired Army Col. Paris Davis, We Have to Pay Our Sins: Lawmakers Must Negotiate Way Out of US Debt Crisis: Sen. Manchin, Suspect Charged After Chicago Officer Dies After Shootout, Nevada Approves $330 Million in Tesla Tax Abatements Over Gigafactory Expansion. The researchers also mapped all U.S. counties (over 3,000) by their bellwether scoretheir record of voting for the overall winner in each of the previous 10 presidential electionsgiving progressively larger weight to more recent elections. Most of the jobs up here are part-time or seasonal. They need to take care of the older people here. He was concerned about the situation in Ukraine. Your email address will not be published. This year, after seeing the country shut down amid the pandemic, and seeing riots break out in many cities, I just think its time that I should start voting, she said. Its education level is a little lower25 percent have a bachelors degree or higher, compared to, nationally. Under a changed political landscape in Ottawa County, Commissioner Mark Coppeler, a Republican, also looked at the bigger picture. The 2012 outcome seemed to be the beginning of a more robust shift to the right for the countywhile the state reelected Obama, Elk County had already moved on. Election Results 2014: The Bellwethers - The New York Times Only 1 of 17 bellwether counties went for Biden this year! If I look back on my life, there is a swing toward the right, and then it swings back toward the left. Two states have announced recounts. I dont listen to the news. Ohio's Ottawa County: Staying Afloat as One of the Top Bellwether Shortages are all over the place, Miller said. The state as a whole is going more Republican, Wood County Board of Elections Director Julie Baumgardner told The Epoch Times. There is nothing we can do about it; the power is out of our hands.. As Figure 1 shows, with roughly 3600 counties, the number of counties which correctly predict the elections outcome can be non-trivial even for relatively long sequence of elections when the probability of a correct prediction is exactly 50 percent, i.e., a coin flip. He loves this country. Figure 1 Counties expected to have unbroken or near unbroken string of correct matches with national election outcome if each county has a 50 percent chance of voting for the winner. Former President Trump and his supporters continue to loudly assert that he really won the 2020 election even though all the alleged direct evidence of fraud has not passed the sniff test of local courts, including those with Republican judges. 2020: Trump - 59.1%, Biden - 38.5. 16 of 17 Bellwether Counties Went for Trump - Stillness in the Storm Republican Gov. In a video posted to Twitter on Thursday, Trump 2020 Campaign Senior Advisor for Strategy Steve Cortes took a deep dive into the 2020 election data regarding President Donald Trump's overwhelmingly dominant performance in the United States' bellwether counties, adding to the statistical improbability of a Joe Biden electoral victory. The strongest bellwether counties are those that back the winning candidate in all elections. But, he said, most mainstream politicians dont represent rural America, and issues such as boys that identify as girls and then compete in girls high school sports just smack of stupid., The economy and taxes are important issues to him, but the question he asks of the candidate is, Does this person care about my family?. Miller cited seeing some retail and light industrial development around the county in recent yearsa Bass Pro Shops store in Bowling Green, a 1 million-square-foot expansion for First Solar in Perrysburg in 2018, and downtown revitalization in Bowling Green. Jacobs, 58, a gift store manager in Ridgway, said she voted for Obama but didnt follow politics closely at the time. We have to figure out a way to control fuel prices. They were particularly representative in 2012, when the average 1980-to-2016 bellwether county was just 0.8 points more Democratic than the nation. Every time you pass a law, the government becomes more oppressive. Why are you trying so hard to get this one guy out of office? he said of the disproven Russian collusion accusations and the presidents impeachment. Ottawa County is also the home to the Marblehead lighthouse (the oldest lighthouse in continuous operation on the Great Lakes), Africa Wildlife Safari, and its county seat of Port Clinton is known as the Walleye Capital of the World. This shows not only his strength but also the level of polarisation that took place in the 2020 elections.. The simple answer is that chance effects can be much greater than most people realize. In 2020, all but one of the bellwethers picked President Donald Trump by a margin of some 16 points on average. Hes an elitist and just couldnt keep his mouth shut. He won Ohio by eight, Iowa by eight. He says Democratic Gov. Petr Svab is a reporter covering New York. Michael Sakal is a former reporter for The Epoch Times. We need creative leadership, Miller said. Bellwethers arent a crystal balltheir streak was expected to end sooner or later. The upper Midwest, upstate New York, and northern New England are home to a disproportionate share of high scoring counties, they said. Jim was awarded the Reed Irvine Accuracy in . Epoch Times: "Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020" July 4, 2022 bellwether counties epoch timesdid benjamin franklin help write the declaration of independencedid benjamin franklin help write the declaration of independence Competing for the Democratic nomination are John Cranley and former Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley. US election results: Why the most accurate bellwether counties were Things happen for a reason, and its out of our control until things change, Brendon told The Epoch Times. He voted for Trump in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections and said hed vote for him again if he were the Republican nominee. HOW THE SPECTER OF COMMUNISM IS RULING OUR WORLD. He also drives more than 40 miles from Marblehead to Wellington to pick up his truck. Myers works as an electrician and long supported the Democratic Party along with his union. Its been a long time since we were fully staffed with 35 cooks. The ongoing coronavirus restrictions seem to be nudging people to the right, but six weeks out from the election and with the October surprises still to come, the Keystone State could be the clincher for either candidate. Hes happy about the passage of the First Step Act, criminal justice reform that Trump signed into law in 2018, which includes decreased sentences for some drug crimes, and also makes it easier to get out of prison early for good behavior.

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